THE CONSISTENT TRADERS

Key Levels

2010-03-02T08:01:00.003-01:00

Hi,

Hopefully you enjoyed all the excitement of yesterday and have some profit locked in. You may have even taken the windfall profit just before the US markets opened yesterday and who could blame you! As expected after awild move, the markets have drawn back as traders take profit, but I do expect a further push lower today to retest the lows of yesterday. All three pairs have established strong downtrends, and while I am expecting further consolidations and a draw back, I do believe they will continue to fall. We now have descending triangles forming at yesterdays closes and we are at key levels. A break to the low side will, I believe trigger another precipitous fall. If the support holds, we will undoubtedly see consolidation for further attempts to break or a pull back at least to the 1hr 62EMA or 5 min 800SMA. I will be taking additional positions on a close below the following levels, having moved stop losses on my other positions to at least breakeven. Tony 1.6077; Cable 1.4847; Yippon 132.56

I am currently up about 550 points, with 200 of those locked in. I intend holding for a break below these key levels, good luck!

Going Short!!

2010-03-01T09:25:00.005-01:00

Hi,

Apologies again for the break in transmission, work took me to Turkey for the week and I did not have a good enough connection to trade or blog on the move. While I was away, the big break has clearly started I am pleased to see that it broke to the short side which is what I favoured, but less pleased that I missed the entries on Cable and Yippon. However, I did get in on Tony and have just opened my second position, below. This is now free falling into the abyss that I described earlier, and it is now retesting the low at 1.6120. If it can break that low, I believe it will head on towards 1.582 and ultimately retest 1.5097! I aim to try and hold on to this for as long as possible and have already moved my stop losses up to break even and will start to lock in profit as this pair continues to fall. I will be adding a further short position on a 1 hr break of the next significant support at 1.612

Similarly, with Yipppon, I know I have missed the entry I advertised in my last blog (500 pips ago!), but I am keen to enter short and will do so on a break below the support at 134.66, again hoping to fall into the abyss on the way down to 118.69!! This will be a small position initially, as I also want to jump on the band wagon with Cable....

Cable,

This has been in a good downtrend for some time, and now appears to be gathering momentum. I want to be short below 1.50 97, and ride it towards 1.43950

As I have been typing this, Cable and Yippon have smashed through resistance, and I am now short on both.

Up or Down: the eternal question?

2010-02-11T23:34:00.002-01:00

Ok, I know my trades so far have been gash, my current open short trade on Tony has shown little interest in doing anything, but I do believe Yippon will be ready to make a move tomorrow, which is now today. From the chart, you can see that it is forming a fairly distinct ascending triangle, which would favour a breakout to the upside. However, it appears to be losing momentum long; the current high appears to be a lower high and it is starting showing divergence on the NMACD. A break below the riser (rising support) is not unthinkable and would spark a sharp move down to the previous low (180 pips). A break above would target the sinker (falling resistance) line above (110pips) I am therefore interested in trading this pair on a 1hr break of this triangle.

Gone short Tony

2010-02-11T19:04:00.008-01:00

Ok, so there was a breakout for Tony alone, and it was huge, and it was to the upside! Oh dear, but hey it only went as far as the weekly pivot which it had been missing earlier and now it has printed a large reversal pattern and is coming out of overbought on the 1hr 9,3,3 stochastic so I am in short and wanting to hold it to the bottom of the box. Yippon and Cable are still messing around, and will breakout eventually and I do favour shortside, but they are being difficult, quelle surprise.

4Hr chart showing this weeks weekly pivot point hit. Amazing how they often tag this indicator with one or two pips to spare and then carry on their merry way. It often offers some explanation for those 'random' spikes you see (note the 19 Jan WPP tagged below). You could almost create a trading plan around that phenomenon. Of course, now I have said that the pair will power on up through it!

Break out coming!

2010-02-11T12:53:00.001-01:00

Hi, looking at all three pairs, I think they are winding up for a breakout and my feeling is it will be to the short side. Yippon is in a tight penannt, cable a descending triangle and Tony approaching the top of an established channel. I will attempt to trade the breaks of the penannt/triangle and the reversal from the top of the channel for Tony, but am engaged in lectures this afternoon and may miss the entries.. Go easy if you are going in! I will have to follow with charts later, but draw the channel, pennants and triangles and you will see!

Break to the downside!!

2010-02-10T12:51:00.005-01:00

Oh good, fantastic, no sooner did the trade start looking good, then it turned around and slammed south. I love trading. Looking back at the entry, it looked ok, the break above the box was small, but the candle was very bullish with a small wick on the candle, suggesting intent. Indeed the first 20 minutes of the trade looked to confirm that and then woompata! Looking across the pairs, there was probably a fundamental news event that as a technical trader I am unaware of. At that level. 'News candles' can go either way and do not form part of my trading plan, so I just have to roll with them. Interesting that the pair held up at the bottom of the box and has been indecisive. In good faith, I am going to redraw my box around the spikes and will look for an entry again. Remember, I am looking to get into a trend early and build positions; Tony can trend steadily for weeks and I want to be part of it when it happens. I therefore keep taking these knocks while the next trend unfurls. However, the price is very volatile at present (no shit) I will be opening again with a small position and adding to it later when it starts going my way. New levels: above 1.6782, below 1.6620. My preference is to the short side. Here is the posthumous chart, it was a legitimate open, although only just, and the trendline above was added afterwards. This emphasises a few things: the volatility of the pair, the need for a catastrophic stop loss and trading is shit.

Bottom line – 64 pip loss

Break to the upside

2010-02-10T09:20:00.001-01:00

Morning, it would appear that Tony has continued his move to the upside after an overnight consolidation and has just closed outside the box set last night at 1.6755. I have therefore entered long, with a 100 pip catastrophic loss and will look to hold the trade unless it closes back inside the box. Profit target could be the 200 SMA at 1.6821, 65 pips away or I may wish to see if it will retest the previous highs at 1.6921 and 1.71210 (I wish). Either way, I am in. Chart to follow later.

Trade exited

2010-02-09T21:34:00.001-01:00

Hi, great start Tom; I have just exited the Tony (GBPCHF) trade at 1.6720 for a loss of 45 pips, which is disappointing, but within the bounds for this type of trade. I have now redrawn my box and given the fact the pair has met decent support at 1.6636 and resistance at 1.6755, I will be trading a 1 hr close of the box in the direction of the breakout. In the spirit of honesty, bottom line:

Trade closed for -45pips

Sticking with it

2010-02-09T17:05:00.002-01:00

Hi, Quick update; I am still with the Tony trade, even though it has closed above 1.6681. The reason is the fact that it has been beaten back so violently from a high of 1.6722 this hour and has now printed a candle with a tall wick and could be the start of a reversal pattern. I have also been watching Yippon and Cable who are also being beaten back from their rally(exited those trades with 30 and 35 pip loss respectively).
I am therefore waiting to get a feel for the next hours candle before closing the trade. If it is bullish and looks set to hold above 1.67, I will close the trade at that point. At the minute, I am down 33 pips which is acceptable for me.

Trade Opened

2010-02-09T08:50:00.003-01:00

Hi, Tony trade has now opened with a cool big bearish candle breaking out of the box. I have a catastrophic 100 pip stop loss in place, but otherwise will close the trade if the pair closes above 1.66815, which is the bottom of the box.

Screen clipping taken: 09/02/2010, 09:47

Hello again, where the hell have I been?

2010-02-08T21:26:00.006-01:00

Hello, remember me? For the two followers I think we had last May, I would like to apologise for disappearing without an explanation. I hope you took the last Tony(GBPCHF) trade I described, as I seem to remember that it did come in. By way of an explanation of my absence, I had to stop blogging for the remainder of that summer as my job as a Career Manager in the Royal Navy was reaching a crescendo and I realised that I didn't have the time to trade properly, let alone blog properly. I therefore pretty much stopped trading until Oct 09 and have only really just got back into the swing. My trading since Oct 09 has been pretty good, and I have been pretty happy with my analysis. I am therefore willing to share my thoughts with anyone who is out there and I will attempt to record all my trades.

So, without further ado, I am very interested in going short on Tony (GBPCHF) who is hanging over the abyss. Having marched stoically for four consecutive weeks, he reached strong resisitance at 1.712, a former rejection area. The pair has been volatile ever since and has now pulled back to the 1Hr 800 Simple Moving Average and I believe it is really to blow below 1.6681, and I will sell it when it closes below that level on the 1 hr chart.

As you can see on the 4 Hr chart, it is hanging over an abyss and I would like to trade it down to the low at 1.6316

I am also currently short on Yippon (GBP JPY) and Cable (GBPUSD), who are again standing over a huge chasm. Yippon in particular has broken a BIG support level at 1.3984, which is now acting as resistance. .

I am aware that I am exposed to the GBP at present, but the Tony trade looks so good to me and the Yippon and Cable trades are now nicely established, so I am willing to go for it.

YIPPON

CABLE

Flying Saucer?

2009-05-19T22:28:00.010Z

Hi readers,

What a week so far! Hopefully you joined me on Friday in the Tony (GBP/CHF) trade. I entered as promised and ended up taking additional positions and exited just under the whole number at 1.7; very nice.

Hopefully, you also joined me in bed (now theres an offer) on Sunday night and not seeing the entry candle on our Dingo (AUD/USD) trade below .746. I blogged that I would enter short, but didn't see it. When I did, the following morning, I had mixed feelings of joy at not being in it, but dread at the thought you may be. In my opinion that was a 100% legitimate entry and I will take them again, that is if I am awake long enough to see them.

The markets appear to have come alive this week and seem to be majoring on slaughtering the USD, but how long can it go on for? With that much movement around, one of them is sure to overstep the mark and get out of shape. Of our pairs, they have all been guilty of it, but for me my favourite is Swiss Tony.

From the top.

Tony continues to rise in an ascending triangle, but is starting to wind himself up and is running out of space as well as MACD support; somethings gotta give! He has tested the lid three times already but is getting nowwhere, how frustrating for him.

Looking closer...

we can see a lovely completing saucer formation (you don't see many of those around), and you can just see Tony standing at the top of a large precipice (similar to other side of saucer?) having been turned back (yet again) by the 1.725 region. Now if I know Tony, he is not going to take that very well and I reckon he's going to jump. In fact, I am already short Tony as we speak and am ready to add another position. Before we go, check out the bearish divergence I have crudely highlighted on the 1 hr chart; nice.

Heres where..

I entered my first position a pair of hours ago on the break of the 5 min 200 and I am currently at break even. But look at that 5 min horizontal support. You just want to smash it up don't you? There is also downwards pressure racing in from the 5 min 62 and I think Tony will yield. I will therefore enter another position on a convicted closed candle below 1.7158.

Although it is a 5 min entry, I think it prudent to target the 1 Hr 62 initially, so I will be looking to secure some profit at 1.7090 80 pips away, we may be able to stay for the 5 min 200, (which coincides with recent support) about 100 pips away. It is too early to say whether we can reach for the 1 hr 800, or the bottom of the barrel, but that low is a tantalising 480 pips away.

Trade safe!

Tom

Aussi 2 Triggering..

2009-05-18T00:21:00.003Z

Readers will know that I took some pips out of this pair last week (grey elipse). Tom, was looking for an entry on a 1H close below 1.7460.

Well we're watching the chart as I write and the entry candle is forming...

If the trade triggers, our stop loss will be a close above the pink descending resistance line, currently 120 pips North. And we will be targetting the 1H 800 sma.

Sterling Ready to Tank ???

2009-05-17T23:08:00.001Z

Having bottomed out on 23 Jan 09 Cable has been on a pretty relentless rise, but from my perspective that rise is finally starting to peter out ... or at least pause for breath. Allow me to explain....

This Daily chart shows trend line that the pair has been trying tokeep pace with. Latterly you can see it starting to fall away - preceded by dwindling MACD momentum.

On this 4H I have drawn a second, less steep, support line that would be the next natural support for it to fall to.

Moving to the Tactical chart, I see that this support line is coincident with the 1H 800 sma (shown in Yellow) ... Which Tom and I like - a lot.
So, when does one climb in ..... ?

Okay, so we'll be selling a convincing 1H close below the nice pink support line, and targetting the 1H 800 sma as dynamic support (.. actually, it wouldn't surprise us if the pair got down to 1.48 in fairly short order...). With respect to a Stop Loss, a close back above the 1H 62 ema would destroy our confidence w.r.t our timing and,therefore provoke an exit.

Just a thought... R.

Commiting...

2009-05-15T08:17:00.003Z

Just a very quick post to let you know that Tom and I have just climbed into GBPCHF (...or Swiss Tony as we like to call it).

We are long at the close of the 0800 BST candle, tagretting 1.7050 - which is a Daily Pivot level that was missed last Friday.

Whilst you will see from the chart that the Candlesticks don't yet look too convincing, the pair is currently making ground to the up-side and it is clear to us that the Bulls are at least having a go.

Having said this we have kept the position sizing small and will exit if the pair falls to below the rising support line (... my stoploss is at 1.6740). This would represent a loss of about 100 pips, which after a super good week on GBPJPY, NZDJPY and AUDUSD - I am prepared to risk.

If 'Tony' can close a 1H Candle above 1.69 I will be adding positions. I also believe that if we are still in the trade at today's close, the magnet of that Missed Daily Pivot will be even stronger going into next week.

So - Bottom Line is that we like this trade enough to climb in, but we acknowledge that we've jumped early and so kept the sizing small and set our stop loss far enough South that Tony has sufficient wiggle room to make up his mind - either way.

Winding up.

2009-05-14T22:08:00.006Z

Hi Guys,

Hopefully you folllowed the Ninja and were able to weather the initial pull backs and stayed with the trade to the 800. I think Rob is going to blog the results so I won't say much more except to say that his Dingo trade still looks good to me, in fact, it looks even better and whilst I wasn't in the original move, I will be selling this pair below .746. Interestingly, the highlighted section of
the chart looks very much like the Ninja pull back if you compare the two.

Looking elsewhere, the JPY recovery has returned a lot of its pairs back to the middle ground, and we find Yippon swinging around its 1 Hr 800. I don't really want to trade it yet, particularly going into a Friday, so I will be looking at it over the wekend for possible set ups next week. Cable appears to be setting itself up for a fall, although I do feel it has plenty of energy left and I will be looking for that to play out next week. However, I am intetested in GBP/CHF, who has been sitting in the corner quietly minding its own business while the Yen pairs have been leaping about...

GBP/CHF

From the top..

The pair has been rising steadily with measured suppport but has been readily turned back three times at differing overhead resistance. It is now forming an ascending triangle, although it is difficult to identify the defining lid level. The pair is also sitting on its Daily 62 EMA at 1.681 and has traded around it for 5 days.

Having made a spectacular descent a week ago, the pair has been ranging in a fairly broad range for the last week and has failed to make any convincing moves in either direction. As you can see from the 4hr chart above, it has also been joined by its 800SMA and to keep the party going, the 62 and 200 have also joined hands. How cosy for them all.

This extends to the one hour chart.

Well, it would do if my platform would show the 1hr 800, for some reason it knows how much I like it and refuses to show it. Taking my word for it, it is at 1.68621 between the 62 and 200 and the pair has traded around it all week.

Given that this is very similar on the 4 hr chart, and that it has remained stuck to the daily 62, I am very interested in trading a breakout of this range. The large yellow box marks the recent extremes of the price range, while the white box within a box marks today's pinbar or doji which has formed and offers a more aggressive entry to this trade (thank you Mo). There is also a rising support line (riser) underneath which would, if broken, provide further confirmation.

I will buy or sell the pair on a break of the white box and will be targetting the top of the yellow box initially, before setting my sights on 1.7 and the various lids of the ascending triangle thereafter. To the short side, I believe the target is the big daily riser, but that still offers about 170 pips. If the pair turns and prints a convicted candle back inside the box, I will be closing the trade.

Good luck,

and Trade Safe!

Tom

Tom is a duffer...!

2009-05-11T22:49:00.005Z

As I write, Tom is slaving over a self fladgilating diatribe concerning his dire trading of last week. When he gets around to it, he actually has a really solid trade recommend on NZDJPY (or as we call it, the NINJA).

So, with so little happening on the Sterling pairs, I thought I'd go for AUDUSD .... or the DINGO.

This pair has been stratospheric for the past 2 weeks and as we know, what goes up must come down !

Let's look at a chart
You can see that Dingo has left its senses, departing its baseline and accelerating upward in a bid to make it back to Mum (it's Daily 800 sma).

But will it make it all the way without another turn of the handle ? I would be surprised ....

So, with that in mind, let's home in a little...

As you can see, it's just bounced off it's steepest trend line on the 1H chart, but momentum is ebbing away...

So what might we do about this ? Let's look tactically....

On this chart I love the way the less steep rising support mirrors - exactly - the 1H 800 sma.

This is enough for me.

If we get a convicted 1H close below the steepest rising support line, I'm going to enter a small pilot position. A break of the red horizontal support line will encourage me to commit more fully.

My profit target will be the 1H 800 sma, currently at 0.7777.

....By the way, Tom still has some way to go on his self flagilation, but his Ninja setup is equally solid for similar reasons.

Targets hit?

2009-05-11T22:26:00.009Z

Hi Guys,

Having laid my cards on the table last week, it is nice to have a look back and see how I did. Essentially, it was a game of two halves. On the first hand I was right not to be overbearish on Yippon, it did not make any big bad moves to the shortside and there were some nice tradeable short trades on the 5 min charts that would have suited the diligent, observant and disciplined trader, so well done Tom, you were spot on with your feel and prediction. With the trades planned, how well did we do at trading the plan

Zooming in, lets have a look at the 5 min...

Having woken up late due to too much blogging, I found my forecast trade had opened and I wasn't in it. Keen to practice what I preach, as I am now a prophetic blogger, I leapt in and committed one of many cardinal sins. I was late on a trade that I had forecast would not go massively my way, and I was in it because I felt I should be. In reality it felt wrong and most of the move had already happened. I was thrown a lifeline and could have exited at breakeven on a reversal pattern, but instead I stuck with it until any chance of dignity had evaporated. I left as it gaily crossed the 5 min 62 EMA to the upside, losing 50 pips.

Lesson:

1. If you are going to 5 min trade, don't be late
2. Watch it and trade it and get out if the trade is really not going your way
3. Trade your plan

Anxious to get even with the market, I waited for another opportunity. The 1 Hr had not reached the 62 as expected and when it set up again with a 5 min break of the 200 SMA, I entered short and targetted the 5 min 800 SMA.

This is how it panned out

OK, Rob would clearly have targetted the low of this move (he is a God, but how would he have known), but I was content enough to aim for my profit target and get out when it reached it. This was a 100 pip move so overall up on Yippon this week, but it could have been better!

I believe Rob has finished an entry today and has been really supportive of my first attempts, I will look forward to reading it later, but I believe he mentioned our new feature which is our " Guest Pair"

Rob has already chosen the best one (again), but I thought I would be a bit avant garde and choose an exotic,

So welcome the Ninja (NZDJPY):

Having been travelling south on a journey of self discovery for much of 08, Ninja appears to have turned around and is set on returning to the 800 homelands. But hey, arent we getting ahead of ourselves here; you are being a little hasty and have you tried to pass here before?

Zooming in:

We can clearly see the double top, the rejection (I know how that feels) and the oh too crazy rising support line, which has been broken as I blog. The pairs recent high has also been made without 1 Hr MACD support. For me, this has got 'over extended, dejected and angry pair' written all over it and I think it is a good short option. OK, where to?

Lets have a look:

With a firm break of the 62 EMA and rising crazy support line, I am short this pair now. There was also a horizontal support line break at 58.59 which added confidence. The profit target is initially the 800 SMA at 56.70, but we can see that the normal rising support is lower still (a freakin lot lower at 54.30) so I will watch it down to the 800 and look for opportunities to go further. Rob and I have taken this trade but...

CAUTION!

As I have been blogging you will see that the pair really tanked to the 144 EMA and has now pulled back for reflection. It has not pressed much higher, but has not closed back above any of the entry levels, so I am still reasonably content. But, if you are not in already I would recommend waiting for a break of the 144 EMA and better still, the round number at 58.00000

Off to read Robs blog for a 'pick me up'

Trade safe!

First Shot

2009-05-04T00:04:00.028Z

Hello, welcome to our blog,

Rob and and I have enjoyed a massive journey to get to this point, but, as a first time blogger and burgeoning live trader, I am not sure which I am finding most daunting. However, I am relishing sharing my experiences , thoughts, views and charts with you.

Rob has already blogged cable , but for my first blog I know he will have left me something nice, so lets look at one of our other favourites, GBP/CHF.

Here I go...

Oh, Hmmmm, thanks Rob, can't wait to trade it. Not much for me there. Yet again, Rob has been very consistent and has already planned and bagged the easy pips from the cable table; perhaps I will look elsewhwere; Yippon the Snake maybe, that'll be good,..

Taking it from the top... its very steep...

'Hey, nice channel'

'Thanks, I have just had it broken by a Darling"

'Hmmmm'

Rob and I had been watching this rising level all year (sounds like a long time) and finally it was broken on 22 Apr 09 by the Darling bud with his Budget. In the context of trading, I don't care what he said or how he said it, but I do love the markets response, for I feel it reveals a lot. As you can see, this and our other pairs dropped. There was a big push lower, and Rob and I were absolutely ready to short it back to the halcyon days of January 09. But, instead the pair thrust south screaming "Sell, Sell" and then looked around, realised where it was, felt embarrassed and a little sheepish and when it saw Rob looking at it with one of his withering looks, it cut back above the line and has not looked back since.

Lets zoom in..

Wow, nice channel, nice and tight.

and here we are again at the tactical level.

For me, I can not fault this pairs recent rise, It has been well ordered, uniform,, regular and very tame; what a lovely pair!

Wait a minute, this is Yippon the Snake; it has shown very little euphoria in its recent move so far, it has not left anything behind and has been very purposeful; as a result, its MACD has eased slightly but has not relented in support. I do not trust it either way, I'm scared!!

If it is going to press higher, and I think it will, it will at least test 149.90 and 151.50 as the big levels and I will leave it alone till then on the long side.

What I am interested in though, is the 1 hr 62.(146.05). Yip has left it behind without a bye or leave and I know it will come back looking for it soon. That said, the 62 is quite trusty and will probably go chasing Yip and they will probably meet halfway in a loving embrace. Might be a nice idea for a 5 min trade to close the gap for these old lost friends?

Here is that 5 Min chart,

Ooh look, that rising support level is from the 1hr chart and it is close to the 5 min 200. I will trade a break of the rising support, aiming initially for the 1 hr 62, but I will not be going hard for it until I see some sincere 1 hr MACD divergence.

I would say beware of shorting this pair too hard at the minute,it may look ripe, but I think it has the bit between its teeth, a following wind and a sense of calm that makes me uneasy.

There we have it, thank you for being so gentle with me on my first time,

Trade Safe!

Tom,

First Post

2009-05-02T15:30:00.009Z

Well Hello !

Thanks for coming across ! I hope you sterling traders have enjoyed the swings of the last couple of weeks - as I think we may be approaching another turning point. Let's get straight down to business...

Cable...

You can see on this Daily chart that since its double-bottom, cable has been fighting its way steadily back up to the 1.50 area; last week was a particularly good bounce off rising support and the drive up may yet have some steam left in it.

However, you can also see that it is approaching an area of congestion that has turned it back 3 times this year already.

In more detail...

... you can see on this 4H chart that it starts to run out of steam anywhere above 1.4950. So whilst it may just blast straight through, I feel that one more re-test of support is going to be necessary before it gathers its skirts for that final charge.

This view is supported by the 1 Hour chart, where it is entering overbought with MACD momentum ebbing away.

What this means tactically is that I'm looking for opportunities for a quick short trade.

Waning momentum can be seen even more clearly on this 15 minute chart, but you can also sense that it isn't quite ready to tank - just yet.

Indeed, I wouldn't mind betting that it will break-through that resistance at 1.4933, but if it has a heart attack just above and falls back through it, closing below my steep rising support line, I'll be ready to short it back to the more sedately rising support line beneath - which is co-incident with the 1H 62 ema; itself always a trusty dynamic support level.

Just a thought... Rob.