Key Levels

Hi,

Hopefully you enjoyed all the excitement of yesterday and have some profit locked in. You may have even taken the windfall profit just before the US markets opened yesterday and who could blame you! As expected after awild move, the markets have drawn back as traders take profit, but I do expect a further push lower today to retest the lows of yesterday. All three pairs have established strong downtrends, and while I am expecting further consolidations and a draw back, I do believe they will continue to fall. We now have descending triangles forming at yesterdays closes and we are at key levels. A break to the low side will, I believe trigger another precipitous fall. If the support holds, we will undoubtedly see consolidation for further attempts to break or a pull back at least to the 1hr 62EMA or 5 min 800SMA. I will be taking additional positions on a close below the following levels, having moved stop losses on my other positions to at least breakeven. Tony 1.6077; Cable 1.4847; Yippon 132.56












































I am currently up about 550 points, with 200 of those locked in. I intend holding for a break below these key levels, good luck!

Going Short!!

Hi,

Apologies again for the break in transmission, work took me to Turkey for the week and I did not have a good enough connection to trade or blog on the move. While I was away, the big break has clearly started I am pleased to see that it broke to the short side which is what I favoured, but less pleased that I missed the entries on Cable and Yippon. However, I did get in on Tony and have just opened my second position, below. This is now free falling into the abyss that I described earlier, and it is now retesting the low at 1.6120. If it can break that low, I believe it will head on towards 1.582 and ultimately retest 1.5097! I aim to try and hold on to this for as long as possible and have already moved my stop losses up to break even and will start to lock in profit as this pair continues to fall. I will be adding a further short position on a 1 hr break of the next significant support at 1.612















Similarly, with Yipppon, I know I have missed the entry I advertised in my last blog (500 pips ago!), but I am keen to enter short and will do so on a break below the support at 134.66, again hoping to fall into the abyss on the way down to 118.69!! This will be a small position initially, as I also want to jump on the band wagon with Cable....
















Cable,

This has been in a good downtrend for some time, and now appears to be gathering momentum. I want to be short below 1.50 97, and ride it towards 1.43950
















As I have been typing this, Cable and Yippon have smashed through resistance, and I am now short on both.

Up or Down: the eternal question?

Ok, I know my trades so far have been gash, my current open short trade on Tony has shown little interest in doing anything, but I do believe Yippon will be ready to make a move tomorrow, which is now today. From the chart, you can see that it is forming a fairly distinct ascending triangle, which would favour a breakout to the upside. However, it appears to be losing momentum long; the current high appears to be a lower high and it is starting showing divergence on the NMACD. A break below the riser (rising support) is not unthinkable and would spark a sharp move down to the previous low (180 pips). A break above would target the sinker (falling resistance) line above (110pips) I am therefore interested in trading this pair on a 1hr break of this triangle.

Gone short Tony

Ok, so there was a breakout for Tony alone, and it was huge, and it was to the upside! Oh dear, but hey it only went as far as the weekly pivot which it had been missing earlier and now it has printed a large reversal pattern and is coming out of overbought on the 1hr 9,3,3 stochastic so I am in short and wanting to hold it to the bottom of the box. Yippon and Cable are still messing around, and will breakout eventually and I do favour shortside, but they are being difficult, quelle surprise.

4Hr chart showing this weeks weekly pivot point hit. Amazing how they often tag this indicator with one or two pips to spare and then carry on their merry way. It often offers some explanation for those 'random' spikes you see (note the 19 Jan WPP tagged below). You could almost create a trading plan around that phenomenon. Of course, now I have said that the pair will power on up through it!

Break out coming!

Hi, looking at all three pairs, I think they are winding up for a breakout and my feeling is it will be to the short side. Yippon is in a tight penannt, cable a descending triangle and Tony approaching the top of an established channel. I will attempt to trade the breaks of the penannt/triangle and the reversal from the top of the channel for Tony, but am engaged in lectures this afternoon and may miss the entries.. Go easy if you are going in! I will have to follow with charts later, but draw the channel, pennants and triangles and you will see!

Break to the downside!!

Oh good, fantastic, no sooner did the trade start looking good, then it turned around and slammed south. I love trading. Looking back at the entry, it looked ok, the break above the box was small, but the candle was very bullish with a small wick on the candle, suggesting intent. Indeed the first 20 minutes of the trade looked to confirm that and then woompata! Looking across the pairs, there was probably a fundamental news event that as a technical trader I am unaware of. At that level. 'News candles' can go either way and do not form part of my trading plan, so I just have to roll with them. Interesting that the pair held up at the bottom of the box and has been indecisive. In good faith, I am going to redraw my box around the spikes and will look for an entry again. Remember, I am looking to get into a trend early and build positions; Tony can trend steadily for weeks and I want to be part of it when it happens. I therefore keep taking these knocks while the next trend unfurls. However, the price is very volatile at present (no shit) I will be opening again with a small position and adding to it later when it starts going my way. New levels: above 1.6782, below 1.6620. My preference is to the short side. Here is the posthumous chart, it was a legitimate open, although only just, and the trendline above was added afterwards. This emphasises a few things: the volatility of the pair, the need for a catastrophic stop loss and trading is shit.

Bottom line – 64 pip loss

Break to the upside

Morning, it would appear that Tony has continued his move to the upside after an overnight consolidation and has just closed outside the box set last night at 1.6755. I have therefore entered long, with a 100 pip catastrophic loss and will look to hold the trade unless it closes back inside the box. Profit target could be the 200 SMA at 1.6821, 65 pips away or I may wish to see if it will retest the previous highs at 1.6921 and 1.71210 (I wish). Either way, I am in. Chart to follow later.